September 2026
CRG-NATO-DOC-0926/5: Escalation by Complication
23/09/26 08:28
Document: CRG-NATO-DOC-0926/5
Title: Escalation by Complication
Subtitle: How Defensive Complexity Can Generate Escalatory Risk in the European Security System
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED — Strategic Doctrine Development
Date: 23 September 2026
Publisher: Condor Research Group (CRG)
Assessment Horizon: 2026–2030
Analytical Confidence: Moderate–High
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Executive Assessment
European security in 2026 presents an apparent paradox.
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Title: Escalation by Complication
Subtitle: How Defensive Complexity Can Generate Escalatory Risk in the European Security System
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED — Strategic Doctrine Development
Date: 23 September 2026
Publisher: Condor Research Group (CRG)
Assessment Horizon: 2026–2030
Analytical Confidence: Moderate–High
⸻
Executive Assessment
European security in 2026 presents an apparent paradox.
Read More…
CRG-EUR-INT-0926/2: THE ARTICLE FIVE TEST
13/09/26 08:55
THE ARTICLE FIVE TEST
Pathways to a Russia–Europe War
Document: CRG-EUR-INT-0926/2
Title: The Article Five Test — Pathways to a Russia-Europe War
Subtitle: Russian Probe Scenarios and NATO Cohesion
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Date: 13 September 2026
Publisher: Condor Research Group (CRG)
Europe’s most dangerous pathway to a direct war with Russia may not begin with an invasion.
It may begin with an event deliberately designed to make NATO governments argue over whether an attack has occurred at all.
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Pathways to a Russia–Europe War
Document: CRG-EUR-INT-0926/2
Title: The Article Five Test — Pathways to a Russia-Europe War
Subtitle: Russian Probe Scenarios and NATO Cohesion
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Date: 13 September 2026
Publisher: Condor Research Group (CRG)
Europe’s most dangerous pathway to a direct war with Russia may not begin with an invasion.
It may begin with an event deliberately designed to make NATO governments argue over whether an attack has occurred at all.
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CRG-MENA-INT-0926/1: The Mecca Architecture
03/09/26 13:02
The Mecca Architecture
Iran and the Emergence of a Post-American Security Order
Document: CRG-MENA-INT-0926/1
Title: The Mecca Architecture
Subtitle: Iran and the Emergence of a Post-American Security Order
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Date: 3 September 2026
Publisher: Condor Research Group (CRG)
The emerging defence relationship between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has been described in some quarters as the beginning of a new regional security architecture — potentially one less dependent on the United States and eventually capable of accommodating additional regional powers.
CRG’s assessment is more cautious.
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Iran and the Emergence of a Post-American Security Order
Document: CRG-MENA-INT-0926/1
Title: The Mecca Architecture
Subtitle: Iran and the Emergence of a Post-American Security Order
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Date: 3 September 2026
Publisher: Condor Research Group (CRG)
The emerging defence relationship between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has been described in some quarters as the beginning of a new regional security architecture — potentially one less dependent on the United States and eventually capable of accommodating additional regional powers.
CRG’s assessment is more cautious.
Read More…