Condor Research Group

CRG-EUR-INT-0925/9: “We Are Already at War with Russia” & CRG Predictive Casualty Estimates

๐—–๐—ฅ๐—š-๐—˜๐—จ๐—ฅ-๐—œ๐—ก๐—ง-๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿต๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ/๐Ÿต

๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฏ๐—ท๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜: “We Are Already at War with Russia” & CRG Predictive Casualty Estimates
๐——๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ: 20 Sept 2025
๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฏ๐˜†: Condor Research Group (CRG)

๐—”๐˜‚๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜ ๐—ฆ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜€:
- Admiral Paolo Treu (Former Commander-in-Chief, Italian Navy Fleet), “We are already at war with Russia”, public statement, 20 Sept 2025 — https://lnkd.in/dX4sQE49
- CRG-EUR-INT-0925/RU-INV-COA: Strategic Predictive Assessment — NATO/US/EU Invasion of Russia
- CRG-EUR-INT-0925: Poland Drone Incursion — NATO Response Trajectory

๐—˜๐˜…๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜ (๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜‚):
“How can one be so hypocritical as to think that indirectly supporting Ukraine, with billions of euros and war supplies, means ‘helping an ally’ without being fully involved in the war against Russia? For Russia, our ‘indirect’ support has already produced lengthening of the war, huge human and material losses, and even strikes inside its own territory.”

๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜†:
Treu’s statement collapses the distinction between indirect and direct participation. By declaring Europe “already at war,” NATO/EU leadership is stripped of the protective fiction of distance. In parallel, CRG models forecast up to 1.6M military and 1.4M civilian deaths in full-spectrum war.

๐—”๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜:
- ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—•๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜: Treu’s shift from critique to outright declaration alters the discourse: Europe is no longer “approaching war” but already “inside war.” This carries destabilizing weight within defense and policy circles.
- ๐—–๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—•๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐˜: Airspace incursions lasting minutes (e.g., MiG-31 probes) are narrated as manageable events. In reality, CRG modeling shows they are potential tripwires for mass-casualty scenarios that no civilian population has been prepared to absorb.
- ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐—œ๐—น๐—น๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป: Leaders emphasize readiness optics (F-35 intercepts, eastern flank posturing) while omitting the human costs of escalation. Treu’s declaration forces the uncomfortable linkage between present policy and predictable blood costs.
- ๐—–๐—ฅ๐—š ๐—Ÿ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ: By binding Treu’s words to CRG casualty projections, the narrative shifts from rhetorical alarmism to quantified inevitability: political language is confronted with operational arithmetic.

๐——๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ:
Confront policymakers, media, and publics with the core question:

๐˜ˆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ค๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฃ๐˜บ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฆ ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ?”

๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ก๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฒ:
๐˜ž๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ๐˜บ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ, ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ด๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ด, ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ญ๐˜บ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜บ.”

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